The Evolution of Proxy War Patterns in the Transformation of Regional Order: A Comprehensive Study Based on the Escalation of the Iran War in 2026

Abstract

Focusing on the question of how the transformation of regional order has altered the form of proxy warfare, this study proposes and substantiates a core argument: during the restructuring of the security architecture and the readjustment of deterrence relationships in the Middle East, proxy warfare has not been supplanted by traditional direct interstate conflict. On the contrary, it is evolving into a hybrid mode—proxy networks remain in operation while high-intensity direct strikes occur in parallel during the same phase. This study adopts a research design of "dual-layer evidence and cross-verification from multiple sources." At the macro level, it employs the UCDP External Support Dataset V.18 (1975–2017) to trace the structural evolution of externally supported conflicts in the Middle East. At the micro level, it focuses on the escalation of the conflict in Iran from February 28 to March 4, 2026, as a case for process tracing. Based on firsthand reports from authoritative media outlets, an auditable event database is constructed to analyze casualty patterns and indicators of conflict spillover. The policy implication of this paper is that crisis management frameworks should neither rely solely on linear de-escalation arrangements nor focus exclusively on ceasefires in isolated theaters. A more viable approach lies in strengthening joint governance of key nodes across conflict zones, securing energy and maritime transport routes, and establishing multi-actor information transparency mechanisms to mitigate the risks of miscalculation and escalation.