Evolution of the Global Sorghum Trade Network and Risks in China’s Sorghum Import Sources

Abstract

Based on global bilateral sorghum trade data for 2017–2024, this study constructs annual directed weighted trade networks and applies social network analysis to examine the evolution of the global sorghum trade network, China’s import-oriented function, and risks in its import sources. The results show that the global sorghum trade network continued to restructure during the sample period. The number of trade ties declined from 606 to 580, network density fell from 0.0271 to 0.0237, and fragmentation increased from 0.5386 to 0.6694, indicating weaker effective connectivity among nodes. Trade flows did not disperse evenly across a wider set of nodes; instead, they remained concentrated around a small number of key nodes, core markets, and main channels. China remained in the core area throughout the period, and its import-oriented function strengthened after 2020. Although its import sources shifted from high concentration toward relative diversification, the additional shares were mainly reallocated among the United States, Australia, Argentina, and a few other source origins. Therefore, diversification remained limited, and import-source risks changed from dependence on a single dominant source origin to concentration among several major source origins. The findings provide implications for improving domestic supply resilience, optimizing import-source structure, and strengthening risk monitoring for key trade channels.